Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Catching up with fashion - Covid

Well, I caught up. Or Covid caught up with me. The delay was due to the China Zero Covid policy, the lockdowns, etc. And when the country started opening up, we went to contribute to the wave/ tsunami.

Day 1:

Symptoms: Shivers, running nose, fever

I shared (silly) views of the general population and thought it would not happen to me. First things first, it was so out of fashion. All my friends outside China had had it a year or two back. Moreover, our family had traveled to rest of the world where masks were clearly out of fashion. We had traveled with the assumption that we would have got it in those months, even if it were an asymptomatic case. 

Also, we had dutifully worn masks, avoided crazy crowds, etc. 

Well, realization struck: this time it was the case of the environment being impossible. China has given up on on the zero Covid policy and it was too sudden for the population that had zero experience of Covid all these years.

The day was spent in preparing a room for isolation and the antipyretics were kept on standby. I did end up having two a day for the next two days.


Day 2:

Symptoms: Fever, Weakness, Shivers, running nose

My friends are jealous of my eyes, in particular - their unique (and enviable) abilities:  They can scout the nearest pub in the street, and 24 seconds later, they can find the cheapest drink in the menu. While the left eyeball is eying the menu, the right eyeball can already establish an eye-contact with barman/woman. The eyes - with these enviable abilities witnessed a dramatic change now. They were tired all the time and started scouting for all the heating systems at home (I never knew where the air conditioning vents were) and the hands, which in their days were good to pour beer,  magically gravitated towards the devices scavenging for hot air or anything that could render them some warmth.


Day 3: 

Symptoms: Fever (intermittent: 100F/38C), Weakness, Breathlessness (new guy here), running nose, cough, but the good news is that the antigen test started turning negative results.

Today I felt old indeed.  More specifically, I could recollect all the conversations with older generation and could better connect with their pain:

  • 70+ generation in my family complaining of joint aches. Today I understand how they feel.
  • My mother's aunt's complaints about being breathless after walking a few steps. Check
  • The senior generation's comments on how cold it was, and that the chill was getting to the bones. Now I understand what you mean.
  • Mind often wandered, making simple tasks tough. Pouring water required quite some concentration . Every element of work seemed to have been transformed to elements of the Navier Stokes' fluid equations accidently mixed with  Hawking's radiation equation. Reverting to a mail as 'ok, regards- my name' seemed to be a mystic mathematical formula way beyond my intelligence.

The day was a reminder to be nicer to the aged and lend a better ear to understand their pain. On the capitalism front - a reminder to invest smarter in the next year, and be an even better investor in the year after. And the one after. Old age is coming, and better be ready for your family and yourself.


Day 4 and beyond:

  • Antigen Test started turned negative but PCR gave a positive result. Blimey!
  • PCR turned negative on day 5
  • The body felt revitalized after the quarantine ended (my wife got it unfortunately - making this quarantine attempt redundant). This was more so because of the role the mind plays, and ability to move out does elevate your spirits a bit.
  • Weakness stayed for a couple of days, the running stamina had to be given time to recuperate.
  • I do have a reason to believe those google stories for one or two long lasting side effects, including bloating etc., but I hope time will sort those bits out.


Lessons learnt:

  • No use wondering how or why it happened to you. Let me explain with some real life questions (from me and the general public) and possible answers:

    • Q: How could it happen to me when I was holed up in my home for X days?
    • A: Maybe you ordered something like vegetables, fruits or other essentials. The parcel may have carried the virus. Maybe the pipe length between your sink hole and your neighbor's is less than 15 meters, and the two converge to a common drain. The virus discovered this route and chose to attack you.

    • Q: My colleague's husband's colleague has an aunt whose grandson attends kindergarten in which a kid got Covid last week, and the aunt had visited by colleague's home the other day. Is it safe for me to talk to my colleague?
    • A: Not at all. There is a probability of 0.083% that your colleague could pass you Covid because of that close contact scenario you elaborated. There is also a probability of 23.2% that she could ask you to share her workload. Eyeing the two of you talking, there is a probability of another colleague could accost you and bore you to death (probability - 35%). So for your own good, stay put in your office, don’t talk and listen to Iron Maiden (if you are getting old) or Sabaton (if you are young).

You see: the answers above do not make sense. And this is because the questions do not make sense at some point. While analyzing the responsible population: who have avoided social events, crowded places, etc. and have sworn by masks: we have found it tough to concretely pin point their infection source with a high confidence level.

There are many funny recommendations on recovery and prevention, and you cannot escape stories of how boiling a rare herb or keeping a cow helped your will wishers in their recuperation journey; which of course you must do. My advice is to keep antipyretics handy, keep a steady head, and the reduce unnecessary stress associated with heading to the Himalayas for procuring that magical herb. Rest, work or dance - do what you like.

  • Keeping the mind right can make a difference:
    • Once I knew I was infected, I headed to the internet. Everyone seemed to be talking about the internet these days and some website called google.com (or baidu.com, if you are in China). Searching for my fate on these websites led to some pretty dark pages - some confidently predicting my death or an impending heart attack, lung failure, etc. as a result of Covid complications.
    • However changing a few keywords did bring some laughs and I found out some of the stars. Whatever makes you laugh:

      • A politician eradicating Corona by chanting slogans:
      • A politician warning you against vaccine, lest : god forbid, you become a crocodile
    • In the end, it is just extracting humor, and promising not to be stupid in your own life.

Every Covid story is different - ranging from extreme brutality by fate from a walk in the park situation for some. But we have to hang in there and do what the human spirit is notorious for: Fight.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

The cycle story and lessons learnt on torsional rigidity

Here is a tragic start to the story:

My relatively new bicycle was stolen!

Living in one of the safest city, it still happened - only to me. I parked the cycle, bought bread from the shop, returned 180 seconds later: And it was Gone!

I could not believe it; It took me a while to realize that there was some thievery involved. When talking to colleagues on the next steps, there were two factions: One camp advised to forget about the whole affair and buy a new cycle tomorrow. But I took the other camp's advice and headed to the police station to report the heinous crime. 

Sure enough, the police and other administration assured action. If someone likes the bright lighting outside Pushang fruits & vegetables, you can thank me & the municipality . Following my police complaint, the authorities installed lights and cameras at the crime spot to protect innocent bread buying people from dacoity.

I realized that I had become the talk of the town.

Aggrieved by the incident and the gossip around it, I started the task of finding the next cycle to buy. The daily rental bikes were fine. But: 

(a) They were wretchedly slow 

(b) Clearly they are favorites of all the Shanghai billionaires and real estate magnates, for they are impossible to find in CBD area 

(c) Their seat adjustment mechanism often froze in rainy/ icy winter of Shanghai *

*Peculiar niche problem - but this was pushing the author to insanity

My requirements were quite clear, my new bicycle had to satisfy the following requirements:

1. It should be the faster one in the lot

2. It should be cheaper than my stolen bicycle 

Point 2 was because of heartbreaking experience of being a victim of thievery, which had thrown my financial model of utilizing assets for X years into the bin.

A colleague of mine recommended the following, and showed me his piece in the parking lot:


Salient features of this bike:

- It weighed a few milligrams more than my wife's left earring (I have lifted both with my tiny finger and can attest the fact)

- It cost a few dollars more than the Honda Accord

Nyope..

My other sensible colleague showed his Specialized bike. I loved it, but then, it also involved a lot more money.

I gave up on my colleagues and turned to other strata of society for advice. 

Now there was one name that was emerging as a serious contender amongst these conversations: 

Forever. A China based manufacturer with a history of 100 years.

Our compound electrician and the plumber had decade old machines of this brand to get around for their jobs and swore by it.

Forever:  A local manufacturer with a legacy of a 100 years making bicycles for the masses. Incidentally, they were trying a new racing frame to venture into the road bike space.

Well well well..

We have a winner here! 

This was going to be the Mitsubishi Evolution or the Ford Sierra Cosworth of cycling. 

This was the underdog that would teach the snobby rich a lesson.

My new machine
So I went ahead and bought it. Sure enough, it rode very well. It did go faster than my previous machine, it had Shimano gears and a good frame. On paper, all configurations on number of gears, tire size, disc brakes, frame were equal or better than the other richie rich bikes.

Muhahaha.. If only my other friends could borrow some wisdom from me : it would have helped them buy faster and better cycles at a fraction of what they had paid for their brands.

Well there were minor bits though, this was heavier than my friends' bikes and the paint job & finishing could not at all compare. But what the heck, remember the price?!

All that I installed was a cushion seat, tiny rear lamp and a bell (a must… to avoid killing the screen glaring addicts in Shanghai). 

Cycling to office by the Huangpu river was fun and one day, it happened:

A gang of cyclists overtook me over a down slope!


I liked following them, initially because their machines were incredibly beautiful. There was a Canyon Aero, Specialized and Pinarello amongst the 3 guys, while a Specialized and a Cannondale served the two ladies. 

While my lungs and my muscles were working hard in chasing the gang, my brain was getting its lessons in physics.

Weight: These road bikes are built for purpose and I could see the lack of weight doing wonders for the gang. With their effortless climbs, Newtonian laws showed that I was at a major disadvantage carrying excess weight.

Rigidity and speed: 

As you lean a bike into a corner, many forces converge: gravity, which pulls you vertically downwards; momentum/ kinetic energy, which keeps you moving forward, and centripetal force, which pushes you outwards (to the left when turning right and vice versa). The game of the bike frame is to help you be stiff enough to balance these forces, while being lighter than a bundle of 28 feathers.

All advertisements show that their bike's frame is stiffer, lighter, and more comfortable. From an engineering stand point, these are all opposite ends of a triangle. You could try pursuing one while sacrificing the other. And this is where the finesse, materials used and quality of engineering shows.


Though my frame had extra weight, the ones ahead were better alloyed. At one point, you can figure that while I was expending more effort pedaling, my competitors frames were stiffer and making it easier. In my case, an iota of my pedal force was being lost in twisting the frame by one-millionth of a millimeter. Small number, but in a race, it meant a lot when every bit of energy needs to be transferred to the wheels.

All this meant that I was losing out broadly. On downhill, I could not compete. On uphill, I starting abusing my thigh muscles to make up for what my machine lost. While I did make some overtakes during the uphill, the gang effortlessly overtook me again on the downhill or the flats.

Sure enough, I was losing to them. But yes, one of the girl on Specialized was tiring out and getting slow as well, falling back behind her gang.

I recalibrated my target and decided to race her.

I followed her determinedly. Yes, that's the word I was looking for: determination. I had had my eggs in the morning but the aching muscles were managing to just keep up. I promised my old muscles that there would be one more egg added to the count for tomorrow's breakfast. 

The situation became more of a determination contest: her's against mine. Determination to go faster.

A slope ahead again. Hell no, I was not going to let that work in her favor this time.  

Ignoring the screaming muscles' revolt, I pushed harder.

I was catching up.

Catching up.. but watch out..

There was a turn at the end of the slope. I saw her lean in.

I followed suit - I leaned a couple of degrees.

The turn was more severe, she dipped in a few degrees more. 

I had not done such angles, but my eyes quickly analyzed her tires:

They were slimmer than mine.

Hah.. If those puny tires could manage the tilt to that extent, then of course my broader tires could do as well.

I tilted a bit more. Now the realization struck: I could not make it..

While she dipped in a few degrees more, I knew I would definitely fall if I followed suit.

Yikes!

I was going to go off the track.

At this speed, my bike could not turn to stay on track, the only option was to stop outside.

I jammed the brakes, lost some speed and the tires got into a skid.

Early morning Tai Chi

At my current course, there was the beautiful Huangpu river at extreme right, a group of aged Tai-Chi practitioners at their morning ritual and ample vegetation to the left.

Checking the options again: 

(a) Falling in the river (not sure if the barrier would hold); 

(b) Crashing into senior citizens, 

(c) Crashing into bushes

Now whichever region, religion or culture you may hail from, you would perhaps agree with me that your society does not look up to killing or injuring the elderly. 

Crash site.. Protect the aged we must..

So option (b) was out. I decided to try to crash land into the shrubs and the vegetation.

I was losing speed, but not enough yet. I veered right and jammed my brakes again.

The bike stopped responding to me altogether and missed the foliage, shrubs and little plants by a fair margin. I looked in horror as I realized my last momentum would be stopped by those huge trees. All these years, I had loved the cool shade, but had never realized the enormity of these trees.

My knee hit a tree, which seems to have been planted in ancient times, for this specific purpose only for this fateful dark day. While the tree trunk showed its strength in whacking my calf bone, the bark did a wonderful job in scraping my knee.

If I were a spectator to this event in slow motion, I would laugh out loud while clapping my hands. Of course I would run to the accident spot, call the fallen rider a few names and highlight his stupidity, state that the outcome was certain when attempting such a silly race with a cheap bike sans gear. 

And point my finger at the rider and laugh more.

Fortunately, the world is still full of good people and the crowd there did not share any of my thoughts.

Aged tai chi practitioners, joggers and cyclists did rush to the spot and started helping to collect things at the crash site - a laptop (the office backpack had magically opened), cell phone, a glove, the cycle and me - all scattered a couple of meters away from each other.

They were saying something:

Something Trrrrrrrrrr something tring tring..

Trrrrrrrrr?

As my ears stopped ringing, I recognized a few the words :

Something.. 你的身体还好吗?Something?

医院? 120?

Oh.. They were asking if my body was ok? Shall they call an ambulance? Noting that the tone of queries was bundled with genuine concern, I carried out a quick self-diagnostic. The head seemed to be in its usual place, the neck as well. Most of the limbs moved, with a manageable ache in the left knee area. Since I could not take off my pants there, the knee bruise would need to wait to be discovered later at home.

I assured the population that I was ok. Other than the fact I had lost a race recently, I was otherwise in very good spirits.

After helping me collect my stuff and seeing me off, the crowd disbursed leaving me in solitude again to meditate on the events. 

A lot many engineering concepts (and philosophies) were getting clear to me now. A well-engineered frame can be rigid, and can sometimes let the torsion work in your favor. 

Not to keep you any longer, let me summarize the lessons: 

Lesson 1: DNA is an important element in every aspect. Even in this case of engineering a fast cycle, I had chosen a workhorse-DNA bicycle, which was trying to be a racer. More foolishly, I was trying to challenge the race-bred DNA machines.

Lesson 2: Shanghai has a serious shortage of smart criminals at the moment. After a few months, the police called me to inform that they had heroically recovered my stolen bike! The police priorities in chasing a bicycle thief (and actually catching them) proves that there is an acute shortage of axe murderers and bank robbers in the city to keep the authorities busy. Just in case you are looking for an alternative career.

Lesson 3: Rigidity to a frame can do you wonders in cornering. With the lesson learnt the hard way, the author has now bought a Germano-Slavic car and has a hearty time throwing it around corners, well ahead of Lexus-es, Toyotas and Acuras. 

Acing with torsional rigidity this time.


Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Surprise charm: Lanka

SL was always out of radar when planning trips out of India but as fate had it, we had few options of transit to for the wretched China route* and we chose this as the economical and geographically sensible option..

*A lot has been written about China zero Covid policy, but like everything about China, it is a see it to believe it phenomenon. While I harp about the good things the country has done for its people, I’m afraid this one seems to be taking it back in time.

As I said, our core was China travel and it took up all if our resources: time, mental peace and money. Which meant we had nothing left to plan for Sri Lanka. The plan was to survive the China travel planning (scavenging flights), testing requirements and documentation load (1.3kg of documentation for 4 of us) and if alive, we see what happens in Lanka.

In midst of our tense time, Lanka turned out to be such a surprise charm. 



The Sri Lankan air warmth glided in right at take off. 

 Ground reality: we were a really tense lot, with our codes from the Chinese embassy being delayed upto the aircraft taxiing, but the gin they serve was soothing for the anxious nerves. This comes from a non gin person. Don’t get me wrong, the aircraft is sans those jazzy screens or buttons that those Middle East carriers pamper you with, but the Sri Lankan hospitality is genuine. People are a jovial lot, the crew included, and you could perhaps invite them to join you for a drink as well.

Sunset @ The Ocean

The hotels are a steal these days for international visitors, because of where the currency stands. Though our hotel was not the top star hotel, it had everything we asked for and more. The price reminded me of what I paid for a shoddy hotel backpacking 15 years back. Highly recommended: The Ocean: for its location, views, breakfast and restaurants around.

Fortunately, regardless of the picture portrayed by media, there are no security issues or active riots to report on the ground.


It took a while for us to gauge and come to terms with reality (and safety). While we had come with the mindset of : 

(a) Cocooning in the hotel to avoid the reported riots 

(b) Getting the 2 tests done for our China travel 

(c) Escaping as soon as we can


As we saw more and came to terms with the reality, our confidence grew. In terms of economics, the country is in a wretched state, yet the spirit is still resilient. More than that, the citizens’ calm and maturity won us. Everyone knows that it is a dire state indeed and it is a tough road ahead, but they are overall a peaceful lot (Yes, I still say this after the adventure at President’s residence that we saw in the news and its history) . Battling inflation, fuel shortage and power cuts, people are still looking to put their best foot forward.

Said the gentleman behind me in the supermarket queue, who took me for a local and started a conversation on how the price of commodity X and Y had skyrocketed since last month. 'Corrupt or not, the political clergy may have done their bit, but lets forget all that: now it is the time to explore all options, and get to work'.

We had the weekend here, so thought to make use of it.

Marvelous art: at Gangaramaya

Enlightenment


So over the weekend, disappointed when Barista could not give us coffee (power cut), we headed to Gangaramaya Buddhist temple. A serene place, the tree of historical significance does have a soothing effect on the soul. 

Tucked next to it is the lake and the Colombo city center mall. Brand power is not that strong here, but the food court had ample to offer.




Road Trip: Galle

We did manage to get petrol, just enough that we decided to head to the city of Galle (~150 Km from Colombo). Kandy was rejected as an option due to the distance, we would be stretching both (i) our fuel supply and (ii) the 2 year old's patience. 


Suzuki/ Daihatsu Every: careful with the fuel
The highway is a breeze, built on Chinese debt of course but a good job done with execution. Not at all meant for highway sprints, the Suzuki Every/ Daihatsu did it's job well with its puny tires. Last we sat in its cousin Daihatsu was in Thailand, where these machines are strictly for city movement to gorge and disembowel drunk tourists to their hotels. But here, we were on the highway. However, the real strain was not pushing the Suzuki to three digits, it was restricting speed to ensure optimum mileage. Not surprising though - it was not just us, the bigger guys (Land Rovers, BMWs etc.) were cruising well 30% below speed limit. Evidently, fuel remains a problem for all classes. Lines at petrol stations certify this problem.


My initial advice for Galle: 

(a) Don’t go to Galle 

(b) If you do go to Galle, spend time in the fort area only.

Recommended: The Bungalow restaurant
Protestant Church @Galle (Suzuki parked)


While there seemed nothing noteworthy as we entered the city, and we saw the fort lighthouse etc., my perspective changed after we got lost in the lanes in the ancient fort area. The feel here is magical. As against my recent advice of not visiting Galle, I contradict myself and would recommend to spend some time, maybe a day or two to soak in the culture, beauty and character of the old town. 


The Fort@ Galle: built by the Portugese, Dutch and British in that order



Colombo Monkey business

Then there was the zoo at Colombo. Not unremarkable, and lest the reader starts making comments on my intellectual capacity, I take the opportunity to remind them that we have a 2 year old in our midst who deserved entertainment before the start of his 10 day quarantine in China. Economic crisis be damned, the zoo is incredibly well kept, resilient and almost at par with the ones we have seen in the developed world. SAARC nationalities enter for 800 LKR only.


The country has character. Check out the way they keep their cars here:



Beauty beyond age: Mini Cooper

And check out the local food:

Taster set @ Culture Colombo


Guess what Indira Gandhi, Scarlett Johansson and we have in common? All of us had an opportunity to dine at the iconic Galle Face. Again, the currency meant that the whole affair was almost at par with your pizza bill in your country. 

Galle Face Colombo


While I was trying to summarize what worked well for us, I failed to pin point the reason why the SL visit turned out remarkable for us. As stated earlier, it was a God-send change from the China travel preparations and impending quarantine cloud and thus exceeded expectations by lifting our spirits from the depth of the abyss.

 

But it would be criminal to not attribute the good of the trip to The Ocean hotel and its staff. We got it for a steal, rooms & washrooms were nice, breakfast was good, the staff was incredibly warm, helped us with travel documentation and the view is unbeatable. I challenge thee for the view: we have never seen the road, rail and sea in confluence.

The Ocean: literally


Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Finding a 6/7 seater

Problem statement:

Dear friends of ours have moved to a new city. Though they got the Nexon with them, they need to start looking at a second car: a 6 or 7 seater to add to their fleet. 

Aditi & Abhishek - with their top of the Line Nexon

I'll reveal a bit more: these guys have moved out of a city called Mumbai. Hence they are (i) spared of the ridiculous property costs and are coming to terms with their new found extreme richness (ii) Having escaped the wretched city, they are overwhelmed by that phenomenon called happiness. 

We attack this problem statement after collecting requisite ammunition: the options available in the market and trying to match them as per the requirements of the couple.

We have with us the Tata Safari, Ertiga/ XL6, Mahindra XUV 700, Kia Carens, Alcazar, THE Toyota Innova, and the other niche guys: all vying to be taken home by the lovely people.

If one has romanced with anything that closely resembles to 'work experience and execution' in life, experience recommends to remove the garbage first

And this is precisely what we will do for the first option.

Suzuki XL6/ Ertiga 

Stretch the Swift = Ertiga
So XL 6 and Ertiga are out. No dear Maruti: You could offer cheap service, longevity of cars etc. But stop trying to rely too much on that and forgetting engineering, finesse and the need to stay abreast with technology. Though at a decent price, the terrible engineering and obsolete components make them seem extremely expensive to me. Correction: replace that phrase 'terrible engineering' with 'no engineering': the first model was not even engineered - they started stretching the Suzuki Swift until it broke in the workshop; the end result was a longer Swift with new row of seats that could collapse at the slightest impact. On the good side: it would spare its occupants from prolonged suffering with the guarantee of instant death in case of an accident. Also: Lets be clear: putting leather upholstery on a terrible product is not termed luxury, when the core design is horrible. In that sense, XL 6 should be charged with dacoity. And I will not let my friends be the victims here.


Tata Safari


We do venture into the Tata Safari territory but as the family already has a cool Tata Nexon, maybe a brand change would be fun. But maybe it could reign supreme in terms of design and drivability.

One more plus: in its current avatar, this is suspiciously more of Land Rover territory that Tata.


XUV 700 and the Mahindra affair

Stunner: XUV 700

An imposing road presence, a ship load of electronics and screens: In short, XUV 700 is a stunner. But so are all new cars at any showroom. The driving position and the height do give you that 'feel like God' feeling and I have witnessed people on the road running in panic when I am driving a Mahindra spiritedly. 

Root Cause analysis of that to follow and it revolves around the critical role these cars have played in all nefarious activities. 

Stunner: inside as well


I have no qualms in admitting that I have little faith in these machines from our dear manufacturer which does a better job at tractors (fan of the 265 DI). Like everything else, all products look spectacular in the showroom, but their mettle is proven only with age. And Mahindra has not proven much to me here. 3-5 year old XUV 500s or Scorpios are incredibly rattly, have buggy electronics and I would rather pick up a 10 year old Japanese/ Korean over these machines. They serve me well to explain the concept of 'Cost of Poor Quality' - with ample quantitative data at the spare parts bazaar: where at time of me buying a wiper blade or a polish for my Honda, I found many Mahindra owners desperately scavenging for turbo-chargers, electronic components, etc. for their stalled vehicles. Bolero being an exception here - though of a different league and for a different purpose.

To give Mahindra a fair chance, I decided to have an unbiased assessment to gauge the candidature of the XUV700 for the suave couple.

XUV - the dream car for many

My inhibitions apart, the problem for Mahindra's candidature was a different one in this scenario. It was what they call a 'Fitment challenge' . At the outset, my friends seemed far too sophisticated for a XUV700. They seemed to have little in common with the paan spitting politicians throned in the rear or goons found in driver's seat in Mahindras. While ruggedness of a Bolero has a purpose to it, that of the XUV is crass and reeks of deceit.


Still, to give a fair chance, I decided to dig for something dark in their life to have them qualify for a Mahindra Scorpio/ XUV700. Who knows: Maybe some part of their wealth was ill gotten, being on the wrong side of the law. My scheme involved tricking Aditi & Abhishek to a dungeon, which had ample of those ancient torture tools in supply, tying their limbs and commencing my interrogation. Here are the results:

Mahindra fitment questionnaire 


https://gifs.com/gif/the-laws-of-physics-does-not-apply-in-bollywood-jROG1Y

Sigh… Truth being told, we were personally invested in justifying the Mahindra fitment for these guys for our own little devious scheme. A few minutes ago, Bugga and I had talked about the downward trend of the macroeconomic indicators these days and their degree of potential correlation (adverse) with our job security. A Mahindra available to borrow from friends, could indeed help our kidnapping business take off if times called for it.

However, these guys were hopeless. Regret to note that my interrogation was a total failure. Not only did these guys check 'No' for all the questions, they also mentioned words like 'please', 'pardon', 'thank you' during the interrogation!

Data also revealed that they had passed their 10th (1st attempt) and I know their path to education has been marred with those premium schools that have too many 9s. (99.999999 percentile was it? Nope, I think i missed some 9s). 

Mahindra is out for them.

Toyota Innova:

MPV or an indestructible tank?

No point harping on the obvious. We all love the Innova and all of us have been ferried in it amply. In its latest avatar, the Crysta is a remarkable drive, gives you decent feedback of the road and makes its presence felt on the road. With angry eyes/ headlamps these days and some effort expended in hiding it's van-ish profile, it is a smart looker too. Though deprived of 4X4 option, it still does a good job when there are no roads. Personally, I have featured in plenty of stories which involve an Innova gorging a large family inevitably late, their million pieces of luggage, zipping across roads and no-roads with supreme comfort, making up for lost time on way, finally disemboweling its passengers and their luggage at the airport, railway or bus station - in time, without drama.

But here is the problem: Toyota knows too well of the market's cognizance of the quality & unsinkability of this product, and they ask for a handsome premium for it. Well, with those dated interiors, the price, and their claim of indestructability, all the best to Toyota to try selling it to the Israeli ground forces to replace their Merkava tank battalions. But I wont allow them into conning my friends of their hard earned cash. My friends are a genuine moderate use family, with no imminent plans of getting into the taxi business. 

Kia Carens

Kia Carens - the smart front 3/4 look

As for the Kia, my experience is limited to a test drive only. All of us were happy when we heard the price of the Carens and had expected it to be (a) a stretched Seltos with scaled down features (b) Cheap Innova which could be floaty while turning & on highway maneuvers (c ) A flimsy build & structure, just enough to do its job of bettering the horrible Suzuki Ertiga/ XL6. 

A test drive allayed all these apprehensions, for this is something unique indeed. I tried to model it as a scaled down Innova or a stretched Seltos, but failed spectacularly. Of course, the interiors are Selto-ish, parts would be carried over. But when it comes to the drive, this one manages a distinct soul.


Looks feature lower in my priority, but the word that strikes me upon seeing it in flesh and blood is 'exquisite' - there is a charm about this when looking from the front and three quarters view. The fresh front donned by unique lamps, the grill being given a miss gets it some degree of handsomeness . From the side though, it is sadly MUV-ish but the rear is fairly modern. To note that you have to look too hard at the silhouette to find its underpinnings common to the Seltos.

On the downside, there is a lot of material inside which reminds you of the Seltos and the seating position - though very comfortable with an upright driving stance, is a faint reminiscent of the ol' king of kidnapping: Maruti Omni. Also, there is ample going around pertaining to safety issues and rating of the Seltos, assuming Carens' case could be similar.

What finally tilts the balance in favor of the Carens is the price. After test driving, I could not believe the number. A tad cheaper than its mate, it makes a Seltos purchase seem like thievery. Note: the author had spent money on the Seltos and had thought it to be the best value for money at that time. I am not alone with this perception: a nine month waiting list proves that the entire market feels that way, and we could expect a price increase sometime soon.

Hyundai Alcazar: 

It is an incredible option and what we say for Carens ticks for this with a lot more. Though this has different underpinnings that the Carens, I just cannot come to terms in recommending this full heartedly at that price difference over its sister brand. Sorry. If the price difference between the Kia and Hyundai narrows, perhaps we may take a look very seriously. 

Jeep Meridian: 

Expensive. But more worryingly, we are scared about it aligning to its peers' strategy and escaping the Indian market. Chevrolet's and Ford's recent exits have rekindled this fear. Yet with its core SIV underpinnings, I believe it could have the potential to keep the Ford Endeavor (now defunct) fans interested. This is perhaps the only option left for them without needing to switch to the Japanese (Fortuner) 

Skoda Kodiaq: 
Lots of bling, good price, but no Skodas to buy in India please (This line is carefully thought through and drafted by a Skoda owner).

MG Gloster: 

Living is China, I can say MGs are firecrackers when it comes to avionics loaded for that much money . In India at the moment, I feel the prices are not that competitive yet. In its home market, there is a huge difference between the Germans>Japanese/Koreans> MG/Roewe. So thanks, but no thanks to this beautiful video game^. MG India - please stay true to who you are and give up that British brand deceit. I see Morris Garages motif getting larger and larger. 

^MGs have next generation tech at unbelievable price, giving max for the buck for the screen loving population of these times. But cant say that for sharpness in driving.

Verdict: 
Those looking for a 7 seater to immediately book a Carens to start their waiting period, think hard in the first month and then: (a) Buy Safari, Alcazar or Innova as per logical analysis, then cancel booking of Kia or (b) Keep waiting for the Carens

Thursday, June 2, 2022

Two supply chain disruptions: The reason?

Then:

1941 August: The German panzers, in absolute synchrony with Luftwaffe were unstoppable. The 4th panzer division  was 30 Kms from Leningrad (erstwhile St. Petersburg). The heart of it was the Blitzkrieg strategy; having already proven itself couple of months back with takeover of western Europe, (France, Belgium, et all) and Africa. 




General Heinz Guderian was the architect of the Blitzkrieg (Achtung Panzer : 1937), and attributable by many for nearly fulfilling the possibility of Germany taking over the world . Almost achieved, until Hitler's interference and obsession with fighting many fronts (especially the long one East at Russia), led to its collapse .


The German onslaught..
Under General Heinz Guderien in August 1941, the 2nd, 4th Panzer divisions (and the collaborative, vengeful Finns at the north) were calculating hours before they could take over Russia's 2nd most important city. With Luftwaffe ruling the skies, and the confusion across the Soviet command structure (some soldiers were taken prisoners even before they received communication that their country was at war with Germany), the prized city would be in German possession. With taking over the port and the cultural capital of Russia, the 4th Panzer division would be fulfilling one of the key German milestones of operation Barbadossa.


All those miles: only to halt outside?

Astonishingly, though Leningrad was well within his grasp, Guderian ordered a halt for the 4th Panzer division.


His move caught his enemies by surprise as well. The Russians were being granted time to fortify the city, perhaps get reinforcements from Moscow and the vast Soviet interior.


Guderian was no fool. If we look carefully, these were his reasons:


  • The Panzer tanks were so fast, that the infantry had got left behind. The panzers were at the risk of being cut-off from the main German supply chain
  • The halt was applicable to 1st and 2nd Panzer division of the South as well, which had captured much of modern day Ukraine
  • The Germans thought to avoid street fighting inside Leningrad. Instead, focus was on reaching river Neva and cutting off enemy's last supply chain rail link connecting Leningrad to rest of Russia



Do note that in the above, 'supply chain' features multiple times. And anyone with an IQ north of 0.027 can infer:

  • You ensure your supply chain remains intact, at all costs
  • You aim to annihilate your enemy's supply chain: it is too convenient a tool to kill or create havoc, without necessarily using your guns


Which is why I am so upset with the Shanghai lockdown affair. While the world had its share of lockdowns, and not it’s Shanghai's turn, the measures here have led to cutoff of supplies for this majestic city and its people. The goal is Zero-COVID, the implementation of control measures is impressive, yet the situation depicts an unfair assessment of the problem and control measures that have gone astray.


Now: Shanghai 


COVID battle is fine, but not at the cost of leaving your people without basic necessities. Over this period, I have seen people (l stick to talking about locals, plight of foreigners is a different story) being denied minimum diet, medical emergencies and everything else. Irony being that this happens to be one of the richest regions of the planet.


While I will ramble a lot, I will mention dear Ian's plight and the eradication of trust thanks to the fake positivity maintained over media.


The tale of Ian and the Red Lion 


Nope, am not starting a fable..

Ian is a person blessed often by one and all. His Red Lion pub is a serious British affair and a holy site in our neighborhood for those serious about sports or beer* or happiness**. *The 2nd and 3rd elements are incredibly correlated. Of the money the pub rakes in on any evening, my colleagues and I hope to be healthy contributors. Ian, a British Shanghainese, finds admirers not just in us as casual visitors, but he commands immense degree of respect from his fiercely loyal Chinese staff.

Red Lion - soldiering on until barricaded in blue
His staff had been providing skeletal food services in the lockdown period. Now while I call it skeletal, it was a heaven-sent option for all those locked down. Nothing short of heroic, procuring extremely scarce items such as vegetables, milk, meat, oil, an etc., converting that to food and achieving the impossible by delivering it to your residential compounds.

For some miraculous reason, the streetside shops were barricaded and the staff whiffed away to some location of no-one's liking. No infection, no close contact, no violation of rules and no explanation. One policy change overnight: it rendered the business as non-compliant in some peculiarly mysterious manner (we were operating for a month legally weren't we?).
  

After 11 years, for the first time, Ian is seriously rethinking if this is all worth it. It pains me to see the exodus of great people from the city at such as scale.

The glorious city of hard working and wonderful people, caught in the cross hairs of a sniping rifles, gunning out some arbitrary measures in the cloak of pandemic response.

The effect from the investor community would be punitive, in the least. As they say:

'It takes ages to build trust, and a lot shorter time to eradicate it'

Quick review of news:
  • News: Shanghai's market watchdog will strengthen supervision and management of group buying with combined measures, regulators announced on Sunday.
  • From <https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2204104204/>
    • Reality: Nope, you are not helping us. We were patient for days and have resorted to non-sensical group buys/ packages and black marketers . Don’t you dare meddle and cut supplies further - tampering with anything more. Focus on improving supply chain. In rest of the world - COVID lockdowns, wars, and whatever the problems were, bread does reach their citizens.
  • News: New safety measures ensure food security
  • https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2204104193/
    • Reality: We all personally know of fellow human beings being inflicted. Tong Tong's (our dear Ayi) cousin is without food for 3 days, her daughter had only rice and oil for 14 days. Less of words, more of action please.
  • "Why China's dynamic zero-COVID approach must be sustained" (Xinhua - state publisher)
    • Rationale for this may be substantiated by facts: (1) Overconfidence (my strategy triumphs yours) (2) Too much of uncalled for fear amongst people  (3) Lower vaccination rate (linked to fact 1)
    • In this article there is an iota of truth, check this fact: "The repercussions of lowering the guard could be disastrous for a country with 1.4 billion people, including 267 million aged 60 or above and more than 250 million children."
    • Adding on to that: a healthy percentage (including aged) are unvaccinated. Again attributable to overconfidence (Our dynamic zero strategy will ensure we will never be exposed to the virus, and hence no need for vaccination - a common belief amongst many, until now)

From our neighborhood group: Basics right. Really?
The fact that I write this on the day Shanghai opens is no irony. For the 'open up' still remains fractured with real freedom of movement to be tested with time and onset of cases here and there. And yes, irony died a thousand deaths with all those talks and articles about why lockdown is good for the overall society. Economics and human cost: anyone? Any lessons from rest of the world?
Have we said good bye to COVID forever at Shanghai? Can someone pin a number on probability of recurrence, and the lockdown thereafter?







Excerpts from siege of Leningrad: "On 21 September 1941, German High Command considered how to destroy Leningrad. Occupying the city was ruled out "because it would make us responsible for food supply". The resolution was to lay the city under siege and bombardment, starving its population. "

The siege of Leningrad lasted for 872 days and is debated to be one of the largest loss of life in a major city during battle.