Two supply chain disruptions: The reason?

Then:

1941 August: The German panzers, in absolute synchrony with Luftwaffe were unstoppable. The 4th panzer division  was 30 Kms from Leningrad (erstwhile St. Petersburg). The heart of it was the Blitzkrieg strategy; having already proven itself couple of months back with takeover of western Europe, (France, Belgium, et all) and Africa. 

General Heinz Guderian was the architect of the Blitzkrieg (Achtung Panzer : 1937), and attributable by many for nearly fulfilling the possibility of Germany taking over the world . Almost achieved, until Hitler's interference and obsession with fighting many fronts (especially the long one East at Russia), led to its collapse .

The German onslaught..

Under General Heinz Guderien in August 1941, the 2nd, 4th Panzer divisions (and the collaborative, vengeful Finns at the north) were calculating hours before they could take over Russia's 2nd most important city. With Luftwaffe ruling the skies, and the confusion across the Soviet command structure (some soldiers were taken prisoners even before they received communication that their country was at war with Germany), the prized city would be in German possession. With taking over the port and the cultural capital of Russia, the 4th Panzer division would be fulfilling one of the key German milestones of operation Barbadossa.

All those miles: only to halt outside?

Astonishingly, though Leningrad was well within his grasp, Guderian ordered a halt for the 4th Panzer division.

His move caught his enemies by surprise as well. The Russians were being granted time to fortify the city, perhaps get reinforcements from Moscow and the vast Soviet interior.

Guderian was no fool. If we look carefully, these were his reasons:

• The Panzer tanks were so fast, that the infantry had got left behind. The panzers were at the risk of being cut-off from the main German supply chain
• The halt was applicable to 1st and 2nd Panzer division of the South as well, which had captured much of modern day Ukraine
• The Germans thought to avoid street fighting inside Leningrad. Instead, focus was on reaching river Neva and cutting off enemy's last supply chain rail link connecting Leningrad to rest of Russia

Do note that in the above, 'supply chain' features multiple times. And anyone with an IQ north of 0.027 can infer:

• You ensure your supply chain remains intact, at all costs
• You aim to annihilate your enemy's supply chain: it is too convenient a tool to kill or create havoc, without necessarily using your guns

Which is why I am so upset with the Shanghai lockdown affair. While the world had its share of lockdowns, and not it’s Shanghai's turn, the measures here have led to cutoff of supplies for this majestic city and its people. The goal is Zero-COVID, the implementation of control measures is impressive, yet the situation depicts an unfair assessment of the problem and control measures that have gone astray.

Now: Shanghai 

COVID battle is fine, but not at the cost of leaving your people without basic necessities. Over this period, I have seen people (l stick to talking about locals, plight of foreigners is a different story) being denied minimum diet, medical emergencies and everything else. Irony being that this happens to be one of the richest regions of the planet.

While I will ramble a lot, I will mention dear Ian's plight and the eradication of trust thanks to the fake positivity maintained over media.

The tale of Ian and the Red Lion 

Nope, am not starting a fable..

Ian is a person blessed often by one and all. His Red Lion pub is a serious British affair and a holy site in our neighborhood for those serious about sports or beer* or happiness**. *The 2nd and 3rd elements are incredibly correlated. Of the money the pub rakes in on any evening, my colleagues and I hope to be healthy contributors. Ian, a British Shanghainese, finds admirers not just in us as casual visitors, but he commands immense degree of respect from his fiercely loyal Chinese staff.

Red Lion - soldiering on until barricaded in blue

His staff had been providing skeletal food services in the lockdown period. Now while I call it skeletal, it was a heaven-sent option for all those locked down. Nothing short of heroic, procuring extremely scarce items such as vegetables, milk, meat, oil, an etc., converting that to food and achieving the impossible by delivering it to your residential compounds.

For some miraculous reason, the streetside shops were barricaded and the staff whiffed away to some location of no-one's liking. No infection, no close contact, no violation of rules and no explanation. One policy change overnight: it rendered the business as non-compliant in some peculiarly mysterious manner (we were operating for a month legally weren't we?).
  

After 11 years, for the first time, Ian is seriously rethinking if this is all worth it. It pains me to see the exodus of great people from the city at such as scale.

The glorious city of hard working and wonderful people, caught in the cross hairs of a sniping rifles, gunning out some arbitrary measures in the cloak of pandemic response.

The effect from the investor community would be punitive, in the least. As they say:

'It takes ages to build trust, and a lot shorter time to eradicate it'

Quick review of news:

• News: Shanghai's market watchdog will strengthen supervision and management of group buying with combined measures, regulators announced on Sunday.
• From <https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2204104204/>
• Reality: Nope, you are not helping us. We were patient for days and have resorted to non-sensical group buys/ packages and black marketers . Don’t you dare meddle and cut supplies further - tampering with anything more. Focus on improving supply chain. In rest of the world - COVID lockdowns, wars, and whatever the problems were, bread does reach their citizens.

• News: New safety measures ensure food security
• https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2204104193/
• Reality: We all personally know of fellow human beings being inflicted. Tong Tong's (our dear Ayi) cousin is without food for 3 days, her daughter had only rice and oil for 14 days. Less of words, more of action please.

• "Why China's dynamic zero-COVID approach must be sustained" (Xinhua - state publisher)
• Rationale for this may be substantiated by facts: (1) Overconfidence (my strategy triumphs yours) (2) Too much of uncalled for fear amongst people  (3) Lower vaccination rate (linked to fact 1)
• In this article there is an iota of truth, check this fact: "The repercussions of lowering the guard could be disastrous for a country with 1.4 billion people, including 267 million aged 60 or above and more than 250 million children."
• Adding on to that: a healthy percentage (including aged) are unvaccinated. Again attributable to overconfidence (Our dynamic zero strategy will ensure we will never be exposed to the virus, and hence no need for vaccination - a common belief amongst many, until now)

From our neighborhood group: Basics right. Really?

The fact that I write this on the day Shanghai opens is no irony. For the 'open up' still remains fractured with real freedom of movement to be tested with time and onset of cases here and there. And yes, irony died a thousand deaths with all those talks and articles about why lockdown is good for the overall society. Economics and human cost: anyone? Any lessons from rest of the world?

Have we said good bye to COVID forever at Shanghai? Can someone pin a number on probability of recurrence, and the lockdown thereafter?

Excerpts from siege of Leningrad: "On 21 September 1941, German High Command considered how to destroy Leningrad. Occupying the city was ruled out "because it would make us responsible for food supply". The resolution was to lay the city under siege and bombardment, starving its population. "

The siege of Leningrad lasted for 872 days and is debated to be one of the largest loss of life in a major city during battle.